The Future, Your Future

We thought you might find this article interesting. It doesn’t take much to believe most of it is true. Read on, it’s fascinating! (we especially like the section on lawyers!)

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.  Within just a few years, their business model disappeared
and they went bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot
of industries in the next 10 years – and most people won’t see it
coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take
pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had
10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it
became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It
will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome
to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers
in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate
than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software
that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will
never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million
people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one
accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that
will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will
save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car
companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning
impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t
last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of
salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are
companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from
Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan,
your blood sample and you breathe       into it.

It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye,
medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times
faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the
large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D
printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field
instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced
veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in
2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several
startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It
contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative
protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating
insects).

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood
you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s
being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’ re not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency. Of the world.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80
years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be
more that one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long
long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and
Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means
everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at
school in First World countries. We have already released our software
in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this
Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English
app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English
within half a year.

Wow!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *